NEW YORK / RankWire.AI / – The U.S. stock bull market marked its fifth year on Monday, following four consecutive years of gains, with the S&P 500 having climbed approximately 119% from its bear-market closing low of October 12, 2022, according to Truist analysis. The index closed that year at 3,577.03, its lowest level since November 2020, and finished last Friday at 7,811.54, representing a 14.1% increase in 2026 and approaching record heights, while also gaining 1.2% for the week.
This latest rally ranks as the 11th bull market since the 1950s in the historical record, and notably, it is the seventh to last at least four years. The 119% increase, however, remains below the average gain of 184% observed across the bull markets examined in the study. Previous cycles achieved substantially larger cumulative gains, with the 2009-to-2020 bull market rising by 401%, and the 1987-to-2000 cycle increasing by 582%. These two periods continue to stand out as some of the most robust in historical terms.
Historical data indicates that many bull markets reaching this stage have historically maintained positive returns, with six of the previous 10 lasting beyond four years. During markets that have hit their fifth year, the average return in the fifth year was 12%, with a median gain of 15%, and the maximum drawdown during those fifth years averaged around 14%. It’s important to emphasize that these figures reflect past trends rather than a guaranteed outcome for the current cycle.
Corporate Earnings Growth Reinforces Current Market Dynamics
During the latest phase of this rally, corporate earnings have demonstrated notable strength. FactSet reported that S&P 500 third-quarter earnings as of October 9 were tracking 29.6% above the same period last year, suggesting that this marks the third consecutive quarter with year-over-year earnings growth exceeding 25%. As of the end of September 30, the growth rate stood at 29.2%. Out of 19 index companies that reported results by October 9, 84% beat analysts’ average earnings estimates, with total earnings from these firms surpassing expectations by 4.9%.
Looking ahead, optimism persists for the remainder of the year, with analysts projecting fourth-quarter S&P 500 earnings to rise by 27.6% from a year earlier and full-year 2026 earnings growth estimated at 32.4%. Notably, about 40% of upward revisions to 2026 earnings estimates are driven by semiconductor and hardware companies, which also account for roughly 75% of revisions to 2027 estimates so far this year, according to Barclays research. These figures underscore the ongoing importance of the technology sector in earnings revisions.
Interest Rate Environment Continues to Shape Market Conditions
The upward trajectory in stocks persists despite elevated U.S. interest rates and high government bond yields. On September 16, the Federal Reserve increased its target federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%. The central bank noted that economic activity was expanding at a solid rate and that inflation remained high. For 2026, the median forecast for economic growth was set at 2.3%, with the unemployment rate projected to be 4.1%. The next policy meeting is scheduled for October 27-28.
Meanwhile, long-term Treasury yields continue to hover near multi-year highs, with the 10-year yield standing at 5.24% and the 30-year yield at 5.60% as of October 9. Despite these elevated borrowing costs, the S&P 500 closed that session 0.6% higher at 7,811.54, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 0.8% and the Nasdaq Composite rising 0.6%. The market remains near record levels, supported by strong earnings growth and higher-than-previously-seen borrowing costs as the fifth year of the bull market unfolds.
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